By: Live Oak Private Wealth
“The odds that you will achieve long-term success by actively trading or timing the market round to zero.”
-Morgan Housel
The S&P 500 experienced a turbulent first half of 2025, with an April swoon that took the index to the brink of a bear market. Renowned investors like Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, and Stan Druckenmiller voiced bearish concerns, citing high valuations, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty tied to tariffs. From the highs on April 2nd, “Liberation Day” (where Trump rolled out his tariff program), through the lows on April 7th , the S&P 500 declined by a staggering 16%. Despite this pessimism, the S&P 500 then staged a remarkable recovery, rallying 28% from its April lows to close at new all-time highs by June 30th. At Live Oak Private Wealth, while we remained constructive on select market sectors and companies, we certainly did not anticipate a V-shaped recovery or rebound of this magnitude. However, our disciplined, long-term strategy kept clients invested through the downside volatility. As we have discussed on numerous occasions, history has repeatedly shown that market timing is a futile exercise.
Read our full investment commentary and letter to clients by downloading the 2025 Mid Year letter.